Tobin & Oschinski (2026) — Interactive Figures & Tables

A four-step methodology, starting with identifying susceptible communities and occupations and ending with the specific skill gaps workers would need to bridge

A skills-based methodology for identifying career transition pathways in communities facing economic disruption

Seven communities across Canada were selected to illustrate how the approach works across different economic profiles

The study uses four OaSIS categories covering 166 competencies

Each of the 15 susceptible occupations has skills-similar alternatives spread across three or more occupation families, suggesting broad potential before local conditions are considered

Number of individual occupations from each NOC 3-digit group appearing in the top 10 most skills-similar alternatives

Starting from a ranked list of suitable occupations, successive filters narrow the pool to a focused set of locally viable alternatives

Illustrated for material handlers (TEER 5) in Oxford, ON

For each susceptible occupation in Estevan, viable alternatives are identified at comparable and higher training levels

A revealed comparative advantage (RCA) approach pinpoints where each transition pathway requires the most upskilling

Two examples of how the RCA approach identifies where workers would need to build skills

Common skill gaps across communities can inform regional training investments

Most common skill gap for each community, across curated transition pairs

Sample career transition pathways for material handlers in Oxford, Ont.

An illustrative walkthrough from susceptible occupation to viable alternatives, including skill gap identification

Candidate occupations screening reference table

Full screening breakdown for all 7 communities × 15 susceptible occupations