For each susceptible occupation, we first identify competency-matched alternatives across all Canadian occupations. This figure traces the filtering that follows for Material handlers in Oxford, ON.
Competency-Matched
& TEER-Compatible
Local Presence
Outlook
& Earnings
Community Review
We filter for comparable training and select the most similar candidates. The ■ square is the susceptible occupation; ● dots are candidates (closer to centre = more similar). Faded dots are filtered out.
We screen candidates for existing local relevance. ● Dark blue candidates are present in the Census Division. ● Lighter blue candidates are present in the province but not locally; these remain in the pool until community review.
Candidates are screened for employment outlook (COPS, projected surpluses or shortages), AI exposure risk (Dais), and earnings viability (≥65% of source wage). ● Orange candidates clear all three screens.
Remaining candidates undergo community vetting against local conditions and plans. We simulate this review by extrapolating from IRPP profiles and local data, excluding some and highlighting (◆) additions. ● Light-green candidates may require extended training.
Note: Data limitations, particularly the lack of granular local labour market information, constrain the precision of each filter and the conclusions that can be drawn. Despite this, the filtering framework itself demonstrates the potential of systematic transition planning and a strong rationale for public investment in better local labour market data.